Viewing archive of Saturday, 25 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 359 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
25/1905Z from Region 2918 (N19E11). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Dec, 27 Dec, 28 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 25/1830Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 25/1054Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/0715Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1352 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (26 Dec, 27 Dec)
and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Dec 131 Predicted 26 Dec-28 Dec 130/130/130 90 Day Mean 25 Dec 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Dec 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Dec-28 Dec 009/010-008/008-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Dec to 28 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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