Viewing archive of Friday, 24 December 2021
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2021IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
24/0342Z from Region 2917 (S27E05). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (25 Dec) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on day two (26 Dec) and expected to be very low with a
chance for a C-class flares on day three (27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 525 km/s at 24/0131Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
24/1847Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
24/1928Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2017 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Dec, 26 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Dec). Protons greater than 10
Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| Class M | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Dec 126 Predicted 25 Dec-27 Dec 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 24 Dec 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Dec 007/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec 011/012-014/016-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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