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Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2021 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2021

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at 24/0342Z from Region 2917 (S27E05). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (25 Dec) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (26 Dec) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three (27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 525 km/s at 24/0131Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/1847Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 24/1928Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2017 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (25 Dec, 26 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (27 Dec). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (25 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
Class M25%10%05%
Class X10%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Dec 126
  Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        24 Dec 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  002/002
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Dec  007/011
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  011/012-014/016-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm40%40%30%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT
Fairbanks, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Calgary, AB, Winnipeg, MB
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.1nT), the direction is slightly South (-5.03nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-51nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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