Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 February 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 47 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Feb 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Feb,
18 Feb, 19 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 414 km/s at 15/2300Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
16/1608Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
16/1846Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 9022 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (17 Feb, 18 Feb) and quiet to
active levels on day three (19 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Feb 103 Predicted 17 Feb-19 Feb 105/105/108 90 Day Mean 16 Feb 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Feb 003/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Feb 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 006/005-006/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Feb to 19 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 55% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä
Reykjavik
Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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