Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 February 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Feb 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 46 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Feb 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 15/0518Z from Region 2943 (S20W37). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 15/0456Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 15/1156Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 15/1312Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7941 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (16 Feb, 17 Feb, 18 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
Class M20%20%15%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 Feb 114
  Predicted   16 Feb-18 Feb 110/110/108
  90 Day Mean        15 Feb 104

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 Feb  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 Feb  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb  006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Feb to 18 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm15%15%15%

All times in UTC

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