Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 74 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/1239Z from Region 2965 (N24W17). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Mar,
17 Mar, 18 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 446 km/s at 15/0640Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
14/2109Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
15/1522Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 234 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Mar) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (17 Mar, 18 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Mar 110 Predicted 16 Mar-18 Mar 110/108/108 90 Day Mean 15 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Mar 013/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Mar 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Mar-18 Mar 005/005-006/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Mar to 18 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 35% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/11/23 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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