Viewing archive of Wednesday, 16 March 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Mar 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 75 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Mar 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
15/2246Z from Region 2965 (N24W17). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (17 Mar,
18 Mar, 19 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 16/0342Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (17 Mar, 18 Mar)
and quiet levels on day three (19 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Mar 107 Predicted 17 Mar-19 Mar 108/108/106 90 Day Mean 16 Mar 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Mar 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Mar 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 006/008-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar to 19 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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