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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Apr 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 98 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
08/1514Z from Region 2978 (S19W77). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (09 Apr) and expected to
be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and
three (10 Apr, 11 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 408 km/s at 07/2242Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 08/0559Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/2231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 306 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Apr, 10 Apr) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Apr 109 Predicted 09 Apr-11 Apr 108/105/102 90 Day Mean 08 Apr 113
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Apr 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr 010/015-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 40% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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