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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
06/1622Z from Region 3004 (S16W42). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08
May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 445 km/s at 06/0338Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at
06/0301Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
06/0553Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1354 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (07 May, 08 May)
and quiet levels on day three (09 May). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 119 Predicted 07 May-09 May 118/118/116 90 Day Mean 06 May 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 007/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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