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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 25/1402Z from Region 3040 (S12E16). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun, 27 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 500 km/s at 24/2342Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 25/1104Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 25/1821Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2035 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (26 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (27 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
Class M10%10%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jun 108
  Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun 105/105/095
  90 Day Mean        25 Jun 130

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jun  013/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  017/018-008/008-009/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%30%35%
Minor storm25%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%10%
Minor storm25%25%30%
Major-severe storm65%40%50%

All times in UTC

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