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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jun 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 26/0812Z from Region 3040 (S14E02). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (27 Jun) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days two and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 760 km/s at 26/1230Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 26/0116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 25/2158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1149 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (27 Jun, 28 Jun) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
Class M10%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Jun 102
  Predicted   27 Jun-29 Jun 100/095/095
  90 Day Mean        26 Jun 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jun  014/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jun  016/021
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun  013/015-009/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jun to 29 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm55%50%30%

All times in UTC

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