Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 July 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 23/1805Z from Region 3057 (N17W91). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low on days one, two, and three (24 Jul, 25 Jul, 26 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 702 km/s at 23/0236Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 23/0231Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 23/0240Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 702 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (26 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jul 111
  Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul 108/108/106
  90 Day Mean        23 Jul 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jul  013/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%10%
Minor storm10%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%15%
Major-severe storm35%25%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Whitehorse, YT
Fairbanks, AK, Utqiagvik, AK

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Edmonton, AB, Gillam, MB, Saskatoon, SK, Yellowknife, NT
Anchorage, AK, Juneau, AK
The direction of the interplanetary magnetic field is slightly South (-6.03nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-63nT)

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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