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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 178 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on days one, two, and three (28 Jun, 29 Jun, 30 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 699 km/s at 26/2122Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 26/2144Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
26/2222Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3636 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (28 Jun), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (29 Jun) and quiet levels on day three (30 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Jun 098 Predicted 28 Jun-30 Jun 095/095/095 90 Day Mean 27 Jun 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Jun 015/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Jun 013/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Jun-30 Jun 009/012-010/010-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Jun to 30 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M1.0 |
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