Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 May 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 31 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 31 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 580 km/s at 30/2235Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 30/2250Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 31/0315Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5303 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun, 03 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       31 May 098
  Predicted   01 Jun-03 Jun 098/098/098
  90 Day Mean        31 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 May  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 31 May  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  009/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jun to 03 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Sundsvall, Umeå

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Tampere
Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar
The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (501.3 km/sec.)
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-68nT)

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