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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 190 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C8 event observed at 09/1348Z from Region 3047 (S20W87). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Jul, 11 Jul, 12 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 410 km/s at 08/2110Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 08/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/1251Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 09/1805Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 158 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (10 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (11 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (12 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Jul 137
  Predicted   10 Jul-12 Jul 138/140/135
  90 Day Mean        09 Jul 126

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Jul  014/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Jul  004/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Jul-12 Jul  006/008-013/008-013/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Jul to 12 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%35%35%
Minor storm01%20%20%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm15%50%55%

All times in UTC

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