Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
09/2245Z from Region 3052 (N15W01). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (11 Jul, 12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 417 km/s at 10/0835Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 10/1100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
10/1114Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 09/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 153 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Jul), quiet to active
levels on day two (12 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (13 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 153 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 160/155/145 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 008/008-013/015-020/028
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 60% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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