Viewing archive of Monday, 11 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
10/2343Z from Region 3056 (S15E65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul, 14 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 11/1033Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 11/1653Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at
11/1744Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 240 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (12 Jul, 14 Jul)
and unsettled to minor storm levels on day two (13 Jul). Protons have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (12 Jul,
13 Jul, 14 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jul 161 Predicted 12 Jul-14 Jul 160/165/165 90 Day Mean 11 Jul 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jul 008/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jul 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jul-14 Jul 013/015-020/028-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jul to 14 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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