Viewing archive of Sunday, 14 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
14/1400Z from Region 3079 (S11W39). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug,
17 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 530 km/s at 14/0010Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 14/1820Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
14/0036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3058 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (15 Aug, 16 Aug) and quiet to
minor storm levels on day three (17 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 126 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 124/124/122 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 008/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 005/005-006/005-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 05% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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