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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 199 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jul 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at 17/2139Z from Region 3056 (S17W29). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (19 Jul, 20 Jul, 21 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 538 km/s at 17/2100Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 18/2056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 18/2036Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3785 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (20 Jul) and quiet to minor storm levels on day three (21 Jul). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (19 Jul) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
Class M35%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jul 152
  Predicted   19 Jul-21 Jul 155/150/150
  90 Day Mean        18 Jul 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jul  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  008/008-009/012-016/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jul to 21 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%35%45%
Minor storm10%15%25%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%10%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm35%50%70%

All times in UTC

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