Viewing archive of Tuesday, 19 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
18/2354Z from Region 3058 (N14E16). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul,
22 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 526 km/s at 19/1204Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 19/0023Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-11 nT at 19/0727Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 305 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (20 Jul), quiet to minor
storm levels on day two (21 Jul) and unsettled to minor storm levels on
day three (22 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Jul 144 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 017/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 013/018-017/022-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 70% | 70% |
All times in UTC
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