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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
22/1623Z. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Jun, 24 Jun,
25 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 658 km/s at 21/2105Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 22/1303Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
22/1149Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1178 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (23 Jun, 24 Jun)
and quiet to active levels on day three (25 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jun 129 Predicted 23 Jun-25 Jun 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 22 Jun 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun 010/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jun 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun 007/008-008/008-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 10% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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