Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 26 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C7 event observed at
26/0449Z from Region 3017 (N12W71). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on day one (27 May) and expected to be low
with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day two (28 May) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three
(29 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 388 km/s at 26/0129Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
26/1921Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
26/1013Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 775 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (27 May, 28
May, 29 May). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day one (27 May).
III. Event Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| Class M | 30% | 20% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 May 123 Predicted 27 May-29 May 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 26 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 May 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 May 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 012/015-015/018-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 May to 29 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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