Viewing archive of Friday, 27 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
27/1127Z from Region 3021 (N13E02). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class
flare on day one (28 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for
a C-class flares on days two and three (29 May, 30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 27/2053Z. Total IMF
reached 18 nT at 27/1220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-15 nT at 27/1207Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 507 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (29 May) and unsettled levels on day three (30
May).
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| Class M | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 May 114 Predicted 28 May-30 May 112/108/110 90 Day Mean 27 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 May 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 May 013/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May 014/018-012/015-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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