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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 147 Issued at 2200Z on 27 May 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 27/1127Z from Region 3021 (N13E02). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (28 May) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days two and three (29 May, 30 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 480 km/s at 27/2053Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 27/1220Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -15 nT at 27/1207Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 507 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (28 May), quiet to active levels on day two (29 May) and unsettled levels on day three (30 May).
III. Event Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
Class M10%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 May 114
  Predicted   28 May-30 May 112/108/110
  90 Day Mean        27 May 128

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 May  006/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 May  013/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 May-30 May  014/018-012/015-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 May to 30 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%10%
Minor storm20%05%01%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%20%20%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm50%30%10%

All times in UTC

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