Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 June 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jun 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
23/1120Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (24
Jun, 25 Jun, 26 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 23/1858Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 23/1920Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
23/0257Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1176 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 Jun) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (25 Jun, 26 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 121 Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 010/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 008/008-010/012-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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