Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 May 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 May 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/1904Z from Region 3021 (N13W10). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (29 May,
30 May, 31 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 571 km/s at 28/0442Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 27/2317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-9 nT at 27/2143Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 150 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (29 May), unsettled levels on
day two (30 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (31 May).
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 102 Predicted 29 May-31 May 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 28 May 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 014/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 021/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 012/015-011/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Rovaniemi, SodankyläMurmansk, Norilsk, Vorkuta
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