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Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
21/0459Z from Region 3081 (N11W66). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Aug,
23 Aug, 24 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 633 km/s at 21/0355Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 21/0822Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
21/0054Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 3322 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (22 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (23 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (24 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 097 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 098/096/096 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 016/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 014/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 019/025-014/015-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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