Viewing archive of Monday, 5 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
05/1805Z from Region 3089 (S23W88). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (06 Sep) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class
flares on days two and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 680 km/s at 04/2333Z. Total IMF
reached 9 nT at 04/2319Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-7 nT at 05/1251Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (06 Sep), quiet to active
levels on day two (07 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(08 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on day one (06 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 30% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 130 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 125/125/122 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 033/060 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 025/033 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 018/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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