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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 06/1833Z from around the West limb. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08 Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 622 km/s at 06/0112Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 05/2201Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 06/0004Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7271 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (08 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Sep 126
  Predicted   07 Sep-09 Sep 125/122/120
  90 Day Mean        06 Sep 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep  021/035
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Sep  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep  010/012-008/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%15%10%

All times in UTC

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