Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 August 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Aug 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 222 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Aug 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Aug,
12 Aug, 13 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 623 km/s at 10/1500Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 10/0425Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
10/1457Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 6675 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (11 Aug) and quiet levels on
days two and three (12 Aug, 13 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Aug 108 Predicted 11 Aug-13 Aug 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 10 Aug 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Aug 015/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Aug 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Aug-13 Aug 010/012-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Aug to 13 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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