Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 July 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Jul 14 2215 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 195 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jul 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
14/0431Z from Region 3053 (N16W48). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (15 Jul, 16 Jul, 17 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 586 km/s at 14/0610Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
14/1056Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
14/2000Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 186 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (15 Jul, 16 Jul)
and quiet levels on day three (17 Jul). Protons greater than 10 Mev have
a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (16 Jul, 17
Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jul 169 Predicted 15 Jul-17 Jul 170/170/165 90 Day Mean 14 Jul 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jul 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jul 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jul-17 Jul 007/008-008/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jul to 17 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 35% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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