Viewing archive of Monday, 3 October 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Oct 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
03/1011Z from Region 3110 (N18W65). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on day one (04 Oct) and likely to be
moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days two and three (05 Oct,
06 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 631 km/s at 03/1218Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 03/1744Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 03/1900Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 282 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (04 Oct), quiet to
minor storm levels on day two (05 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (06 Oct). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on day one
(04 Oct), have a chance of crossing threshold on day two (05 Oct) and
have a chance of crossing threshold on day three (06 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Oct 155 Predicted 04 Oct-06 Oct 154/152/148 90 Day Mean 03 Oct 128
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct 023/032 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct 028/040-015/020-010/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct to 06 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 25% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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