Viewing archive of Friday, 16 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
16/0949Z from Region 3098 (N18W91). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (17 Sep) and expected to be low with a slight chance for an
M-class flare on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 372 km/s at 16/1308Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at
15/2138Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
16/1540Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 16/1120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 304 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (17 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (18 Sep, 19 Sep). Protons greater
than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (17
Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| Class M | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 131 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 125/120/115 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 008/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 012/018-010/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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