Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 September 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
15/0633Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep) and
expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day three
(18 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 493 km/s at 15/1745Z. Total IMF reached 16
nT at 14/2317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
14/2153Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 921 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Sep), unsettled to active
levels on day two (17 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three
(18 Sep). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing
threshold on days one and two (16 Sep, 17 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 35% | 30% | 05% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 140 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 140/135/125 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 010/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 014/015-016/018-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 35% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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