Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 October 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2022 Oct 27 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Oct 2022	125	009
28 Oct 2022	130	015
29 Oct 2022	135	004

Bulletin

During the last 24 hours the solar flaring activity was at low levels, with the brightest X-flare being a C9 today at 06:44 UT from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3130 (Catania group 72, magnetic type Beta). The rest of the C-class flares were emitted from NOAA AR 3133 (Catania group 76, magnetic type Beta). Both AR have experienced a significant increase in their magnetic flux in the last 24 hours and they are expected to produce more C-class flares, while an isolated M-class flare is probable.

A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was detected by the CACTus algorithm on SOHO/Lasco C2 data, starting at 2022-10-27 01:26 UT. However, closer examination reveals that the detection was caused by two separate CME located closely in space and time. Both events took place close to the SSE of the solar limb and are not expected to be geo-effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed ranged between 330 and 410 km/s. The total magnetic field (Bt) varied between 1 and 8 nT, while its North-South (Bz) component ranged between -7 and 5 nT in the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle switched between positive (directed away from the Sun) and negative values throughout the last 24 hours. A High Speed Stream (HSS) is expected to arrive today or tomorrow and cause a significant effect to the SW conditions.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA Kp and K Belgium 1-3) over the last 24 hours. The are expected to increase to active conditions in the next 24 hours, since a HSS is expected to arrive within the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 083, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	079
10cm solar flux	122
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	075 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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