Viewing archive of Friday, 4 November 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 308 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Nov 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C5 event observed at
04/0744Z. There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Nov,
06 Nov, 07 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 630 km/s at 03/2209Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 03/2125Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 03/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5870 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (05 Nov), quiet to
active levels on day two (06 Nov) and unsettled levels on day three (07
Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Nov 118 Predicted 05 Nov-07 Nov 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 04 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Nov 016/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Nov 013/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Nov-07 Nov 014/020-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Nov to 07 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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