Viewing archive of Thursday, 1 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at
01/0721Z from Region 3152 (N28W38). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (02 Dec,
03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 685 km/s at 01/0159Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 30/2346Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-10 nT at 01/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous
orbit reached a peak level of 3825 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (02 Dec, 04 Dec)
and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 119 Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 01 Dec 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 017/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 021/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 014/020-011/010-013/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec to 04 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 35% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Whitehorse, YT, Yellowknife, NTAnchorage, AK, Fairbanks, AK, Juneau, AK, Utqiagvik, AK
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