Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 362 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
28/0256Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (29 Dec, 30 Dec, 31 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 562 km/s at 28/0526Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 28/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
28/0441Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 1147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (29 Dec) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Dec 160 Predicted 29 Dec-31 Dec 158/156/154 90 Day Mean 28 Dec 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Dec 016/027 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Dec 006/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Dec-31 Dec 008/010-013/016-011/014
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Dec to 31 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå
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