Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 December 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at 27/0054Z from Region 3176 (N19E50). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (28 Dec, 29 Dec, 30 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 27/0321Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 27/0351Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 27/0426Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1630 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (28 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (29 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (30 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Dec  NA
  Predicted   28 Dec-30 Dec 140/140/140
  90 Day Mean        27 Dec  131 estimated

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec  019/026
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Dec  018/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec  010/015-008/010-011/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%25%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%35%

All times in UTC

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