Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 December 2022
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Dec 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 363 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Dec 2022IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
29/1833Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (30 Dec, 31 Dec, 01 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 482 km/s at 29/0105Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 29/1702Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
29/1221Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 2808 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (30 Dec, 31 Dec) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (01 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 45% | 45% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Dec 163 Predicted 30 Dec-01 Jan 164/162/160 90 Day Mean 29 Dec 134
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Dec 004/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Dec 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Dec-01 Jan 013/016-011/014-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Dec to 01 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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