Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
25/1011Z from Region 3190 (S14W89). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 559 km/s at 24/2133Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 25/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
25/1310Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 389 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (26 Jan,
27 Jan, 28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 172 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 003/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 007/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 010/010-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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