Viewing archive of Thursday, 26 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 26 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
26/1306Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (29 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 568 km/s at 26/1850Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 26/2027Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
26/0909Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 351 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (27 Jan, 28 Jan)
and quiet levels on day three (29 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Jan 151 Predicted 27 Jan-29 Jan 150/150/145 90 Day Mean 26 Jan 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jan 005/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Jan 012/014 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Jan-29 Jan 007/008-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jan to 29 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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