Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at
24/1435Z from Region 3192 (N16W70). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance
for M-class flares on day three (27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 24/1740Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 24/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
24/1038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 411 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jan 180 Predicted 25 Jan-27 Jan 180/175/170 90 Day Mean 24 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jan 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan 013/015-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 30% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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