Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 January 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 24 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C9 event observed at 24/1435Z from Region 3192 (N16W70). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 Jan, 26 Jan) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on day three (27 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 452 km/s at 24/1740Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 24/1957Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/1038Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 411 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (27 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
Class M35%35%25%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Jan 180
  Predicted   25 Jan-27 Jan 180/175/170
  90 Day Mean        24 Jan 151

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jan  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Jan  006/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Jan-27 Jan  013/015-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jan to 27 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%15%
Minor storm20%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%15%20%
Minor storm35%30%25%
Major-severe storm50%30%20%

All times in UTC

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