Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 November 2022

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2022 Nov 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2022

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 08/1702Z from Region 3141 (N14E25). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class or X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov, 11 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 433 km/s at 08/0652Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 08/0003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 08/0906Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 364 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Nov, 10 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
Class M20%20%20%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Nov 132
  Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        08 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  012/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Nov  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  010/012-011/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov to 11 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%30%
Major-severe storm45%45%35%

All times in UTC

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Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Reykjavik

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Tórshavn
Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Kirkenes, Tromsø, Trondheim
Arkhangelsk, Murmansk, Vorkuta
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-62nT)

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