Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 14 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
14/2021Z from Region 3182 (S18W48). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 555 km/s at 14/0725Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 14/1746Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
13/2105Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (15 Jan) and quiet levels
on days two and three (16 Jan, 17 Jan). Protons have a chance of
crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (15 Jan, 16 Jan, 17 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| Class M | 55% | 55% | 55% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jan 228 Predicted 15 Jan-17 Jan 225/225/220 90 Day Mean 14 Jan 140
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jan 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jan-17 Jan 008/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jan to 17 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last M-flare | 2024/12/22 | M1.1 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
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