Viewing archive of Friday, 13 January 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 13 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 13/1015Z from Region 3181 (S21W87). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 532 km/s at 13/1123Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 13/2014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 13/2017Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at 13/0340Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 326 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (14 Jan, 15 Jan) and quiet levels on day three (16 Jan). Protons have a chance of crossing threshold on days one, two, and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan, 16 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Jan 209
  Predicted   14 Jan-16 Jan 212/215/215
  90 Day Mean        13 Jan 139

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jan  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Jan  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Jan-16 Jan  008/010-008/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jan to 16 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%15%
Minor storm10%10%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%30%20%
Major-severe storm35%35%20%

All times in UTC

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