Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 January 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 12 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 12/1128Z from Region 3181 (S19W74). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (13 Jan, 14 Jan, 15 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 464 km/s at 12/1349Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 12/0229Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 12/1313Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 202 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (13 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (13 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (14 Jan, 15 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
Class M60%55%55%
Class X20%20%15%
Proton20%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jan 212
  Predicted   13 Jan-15 Jan 210/210/208
  90 Day Mean        12 Jan 138

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jan  008/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jan  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 Jan-15 Jan  006/005-008/010-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jan to 15 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%25%25%
Minor storm01%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%30%30%
Major-severe storm20%35%35%

All times in UTC

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