Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 January 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at 10/2247Z from Region 3186 (N25E65). There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13 Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 11/1935Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 11/1652Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 11/1649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Jan, 13 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (14 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two (12 Jan, 13 Jan) and have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
Class M65%65%60%
Class X30%30%25%
Proton20%20%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 Jan 195
  Predicted   12 Jan-14 Jan 196/196/198
  90 Day Mean        11 Jan 137

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan  006/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 11 Jan  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan  005/005-006/005-009/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%25%
Minor storm01%01%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%30%
Major-severe storm20%20%35%

All times in UTC

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