Viewing archive of Wednesday, 11 January 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 11 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X1 event observed at
10/2247Z from Region 3186 (N25E65). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Jan, 13
Jan, 14 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 470 km/s at 11/1935Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 11/1652Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
11/1649Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached
a peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Jan, 13 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Jan). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one and two (12 Jan, 13 Jan) and have a
slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (14 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 60% |
| Class X | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 195 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 196/196/198 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 005/005-006/005-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/11/10 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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