Viewing archive of Tuesday, 7 February 2023

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 07 2250 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 38 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 07/2007Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 614 km/s at 07/0822Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 07/0223Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 07/0148Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 216 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (08 Feb, 09 Feb, 10 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Feb 185
  Predicted   08 Feb-10 Feb 185/185/190
  90 Day Mean        07 Feb 153

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Feb  013/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Feb  016/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 Feb-10 Feb  011/012-007/008-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Feb to 10 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm30%25%25%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 01:33 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Reykjavik
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.49nT), the direction is slightly South (-4.32nT).

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

04:03 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index

The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 50GW at 04:56 UTC


01:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 01:32 UTC

alert


Tuesday, 1 April 2025
22:51 UTC - Solar flare

Moderate M2.5 flare

alert


22:30 UTC - Radio Blackout

Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.45)


07:15 UTC - 10cm Radio Burst

Begin Time: 01/04/2025 06:45 UTC Maximum Time: 01/04/2025 06:45 UTC Duration: 1 minutes. Peak flux: 190 sfu


Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2025/03/28X1.1
Last M-flare2025/04/01M2.4
Last geomagnetic storm2025/03/27Kp5 (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
February 2025154.6 +17.6
Last 30 days128.1 -22.5

This day in history*

Solar flares
12001X28.5
22001X2.01
32001X1.59
42014M9.35
52017M8.22
DstG
11960-272G3
21973-173G3
32001-101G1
41976-101G1
51994-96G3
*since 1994

Social networks