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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 39 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M6 event observed at 07/2307Z from Region 3213 (N31W01). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Feb, 10 Feb, 11 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 655 km/s at 07/2331Z. Total IMF reached 10 nT at 08/0726Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 08/1058Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2518 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (09 Feb, 10 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (11 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
Class M55%55%55%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Feb 192
  Predicted   09 Feb-11 Feb 192/195/195
  90 Day Mean        08 Feb 154

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Feb  012/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Feb  013/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Feb-11 Feb  009/010-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Feb to 11 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%10%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%20%
Major-severe storm25%25%15%

All times in UTC

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