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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 09/0310Z from Region 3217 (S10E63). There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 08/2100Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 09/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/0311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1220 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Feb), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (12 Feb). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day three (12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
Class M75%75%75%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton05%05%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Feb 215
  Predicted   10 Feb-12 Feb 214/212/212
  90 Day Mean        09 Feb 155

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb  012/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Feb  014/017
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb  010/008-008/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%10%10%
Minor storm10%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%20%20%
Major-severe storm40%20%15%

All times in UTC

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