Viewing archive of Thursday, 9 February 2023
Solar activity report
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Feb 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 40 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Feb 2023IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at
09/0310Z from Region 3217 (S10E63). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(10 Feb, 11 Feb, 12 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 599 km/s at 08/2100Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 09/0305Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 09/0311Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1220 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Feb), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (11 Feb) and quiet levels on day three (12 Feb).
Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold
on day three (12 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Feb 215 Predicted 10 Feb-12 Feb 214/212/212 90 Day Mean 09 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Feb 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Feb 014/017 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Feb-12 Feb 010/008-008/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Feb to 12 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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