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Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2023 Mar 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 67 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Mar 2023

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M1 event observed at 08/1012Z from Region 3242 (N10W15). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Mar, 10 Mar, 11 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 506 km/s at 07/2121Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 08/1916Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 08/1700Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4293 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (09 Mar, 11 Mar) and quiet levels on day two (10 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
Class M40%35%35%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Mar 182
  Predicted   09 Mar-11 Mar 178/175/172
  90 Day Mean        08 Mar 171

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Mar  007/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Mar  007/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Mar-11 Mar  008/008-006/005-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Mar to 11 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm05%01%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm25%20%25%

All times in UTC

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